Bulls hope to have Rose in New Orleans

Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The best from the NBA's Eastern Conference meets the worst from the West when the Chicago Bulls resume their grueling nine-game road trip against the lowly Hornets in New Orleans.

The Bulls won their third straight contest and improved to 4-2 on the trek with a 108-87 blowout win over the New Jersey Nets on Monday. Chicago shot 55.6 percent from the floor, made nine three-pointers and went 19-of-23 from the foul line en route to the easy win.

The news wasn't all good for the Bulls, however, who lost star guard Derrick Rose in the second quarter to lower back spasms. The reigning MVP had just four points in nearly 11 minutes of action before leaving.

Carlos Boozer led the way with 24 points, six rebounds and five assists for Chicago, which improved to 21-6 on the season. Luol Deng added 19 points.

"We're a good team. If I play or if I don't play, I know that we're going to go out there, compete and play hard every single second when we're out there," said Rose.

Rose is listed as questionable tonight and wants to play but the Bulls may consider resting him against a poor New Orleans team, which has dropped 21 of 23 games since starting the season 2-0. Rose's running mate in the backcourt, Rip Hamilton, is also questionable with a nagging groin problem.

The Bulls, who are 12-5 as the visitor, will finish their lengthy trip with visits to Charlotte and Boston before returning to the Windy City for six-game residency.

Things continue to go south for the Hornets, who dropped the opener of a four- game homestand to Sacramento on Monday. New Orleans had five players in double figures in the 100-92 setback led by Greivis Vasquez's 20 points and nine assists.

Emeka Okafor had 19 points and Chris Kaman added a 10-point, 12-rebound double-double in his first game since January 23 for a Hornets team that has dropped six straight and 15 of 16.

"Give them credit," said Hornets head coach Monty Williams. "They came out with more intensity. We gave up 61 points in a half after holding them to 39 points in the first half. It's a tale of two halves once again, and down the stretch in the fourth quarter, we can't pull the game out."

Part of New Orleans' problems stem from injuries. High-scoring guard Eric Gordon remains out with a balky right knee, capable big Carl Landry is sidelined due to a sprained left knee, guard Jarrett Jack has been wrestling with a sore left and knee and center Jason Smith is struggling with concussion related symptoms.

The Hornets, who are just 2-12 in the Big Easy, will also face Portland and Utah on their residency.

The Bulls have won six straight over New Orleans.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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